Over the past few days we've seen some comment on how a two question referendum in Scotland might work. People are asking what happens if devo max gets more yes votes than independence in such a ballot?
As the First Minister has made clear, the SNP will be campaigning full square for independence in the referendum. He is also open to including a question in the referendum on extending devolved responsibilities. And the Scottish Government has previously set out how this would work.
In the model proposed in the draft referendum bill in the last session, the choice would not be framed as an either/or. This is where the misunderstanding (or refusal to understand) arises.
Instead, the consultation paper sets out that voters would be asked, first, whether they want the Scottish Parliament to have responsibility for all matters except defence and foreign affairs. Then, they would be asked whether they want the additional powers that would take us to independence.
This is the same approach as in 1997. Scots were first asked whether they wanted a Scottish Parliament with responsibility for health, education, justice etc. Then, as the second question, whether they - in addition - wanted that parliament to have tax-varying powers. The two options weren't competing.
So if there is a 2 question referendum on independence the approach, based on the 2010 consultation paper, would, in broad terms, be as follows. First, people are asked whether they want the parliament to have responsibility for the economy, welfare, energy etc (i.e. devo max). Then they are asked if they want the parliament - in addition - to have responsibility for the other policy areas that mean Scotland would become independent.
Going back to 1997, three-quarters of Scots voted for the Parliament and just less than two-thirds for the additional tax varying powers. On the argument being presented by the Lib Dems and others, this result should mean that because the 'parliament only' option had more votes than the 'parliament plus tax-varying powers' option then the 'parliament only' option won. That is patently nonsense.
I've heard some say that in the independence referendum the two options wouldn't be linked. If you look back at the draft bill, that's clearly not the case. And, given that many of these same people are describing the middle option as 'independence-lite', the obvious point is, you can't have it both ways.
Well done Stephen. Clearest comparison with the last two question referendum I have seen!
ReplyDeletePity you weren't on Newsnicht last night!
The other point is that a majority independence vote would mean that was the favourite option.
ReplyDeleteTaking Willie Rennie's extreme case, even if 100% of people voted for the first step - devo max or the extra powers over the economy, finances etc - and then in the second question 51% of Scots also voted for the second step - the additional powers of an independent country - you would have 51% wanting both steps ie independence and 49% left wanting one step ie devo-max. And in a democracy 51% beats 49%.
It seems perfectly simple to me.
Very clear Stephen this is as I suspected and as most people could have worked out. Perhaps you could forward it to Iain Gray with an explanatory Venn diagram.
ReplyDeleteGreat explanation. I now understand it. Reading the press, I was mightily confused (I wonder why?)
ReplyDeleteVery helpful explanation Stephen - it would be helpful if SNP spokesmen and women were as clear as this and consistent when debating this
ReplyDeleteExcellent summary.
ReplyDeleteI disagree - I distatstefully find myself agreeing with the Brit nats, not something I ever do but the exception proves the rule.
ReplyDeleteA YES majority on a simple YES or NO vote give the Scottish government a clear mandate.
A YES vote with a larger % voting for DevoMax gives a muddy mandate.
We can always hold a second referendum a year later on FFA.
For clarity, the first question should be;
ReplyDeleteDo you agree that the Scottish Parliament should have greater powers? -
Yes or No.
If yes, the second question would be;
Would you prefer Devolution Max (all powers transferred to Holyrood except Defence and Foreign Affairs)
or Independence (all powers transferred to Holyrood including Defence and Foreign Affairs)?
Devo Max / Independence.
regards,
Davie Park
Stephen you will have to do more evangelising on this! Moridura amongst others seem to think this is impossibly complicated?
ReplyDeleteIt's an incredibly simple concept, which makes it all the more bizarre that so many people seem to be having trouble grasping it. I suspect that it is mostly just politicos feeling a need to find something to pontificate over, and unionists displaying their usual wilful misunderstanding. Once the question is put to the people, I think they'll find it very simple: Do you want the Scottish Parliament to have more powers, and in fact, do you want it to have full control over Scotland's powers?
ReplyDeleteOf course, by 2015, there is a big chance devo max won't be on the cards, having failed to find anyone amongst the unionists to champion it, and the public becoming increasingly keen for Scotland to just become independent, rather than faffing about with half-arsed measures.
Doug, it's incredibly simple but it has two negatives.
ReplyDelete1) It muddies the clarity of a simple YES or NO to independence.
2) It offers a halfway house for those who might just decide to stay with the union (euphemistically termed the status quo).
It is possible that there could be the horrible possibility of (AND STEPHEN I HOPE YOU'RE READING THIS) as many people voting NO to staay in the union but voting YES for FFA.
Therefore the SNP's idea that the majority would vote FFA + independence might become FFA + union instead.
Only a dummy would give two questions with the number of variable outcomes possible in the most important question the Scots will be asked ever.
A simple YES or NO, then if need be a referendum on FFA but the Brit nats would hand that over in all likelihood anyway.
Shooting oneself in the foot is the Elmer fudd school of hunting.
Can the SNP detail what an independent Scotland's economic strategy/policy would look like?
ReplyDeleteWould an independent Scotland grow faster and build a higher quality economy?
Where we are right now is that most people haven’t really thought it through.
ReplyDeleteThis is where *VOTER CONTACT* is essential. We are not going to win the referendum solely through the media or through parliamentary tactics.
It’s face to face contact that will decide it. Find out what people think – if they are against independence why are they against it? If they are undecided why are they undecided? And indeed if they are for it why are they for it? That way we build up a picture of what people really think and what they really want which puts us in a better position to make the arguments for independence in a way that will make sense to individuals, not just a general mass.
Total rubbish and probably a deliberate misrepresentation of the 1997 referendum!! Professor John Curtice has already explained the difference between the 97 referendum which proposed complimentary outcomes and the SNP proposal which has contradictory outcomes i.e. you cannot have Devo max and independence but in 97 you could have devolution and the tax raising powers. It is just so obvious.
ReplyDelete